Sean t rcp twitter.

“We need more analysis like this. Hispanics are not a monolith -- the entire construct isn't necessarily how people termed "Hispanic" or "Latino" conceive of themselves. Immigration, for example, has very different relationships with Mex-Am, Cuban-Am, and Puerto Rican voters.”

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“I've done these before and they are a handy way to see what the votes mean. Basically, once counties clear a certain number of votes in, this take them and compares them to 2017 results, with 4.5% taken off the 2017 results (since Northam won by 9). 1/”Oct 19, 2022 · “I think a lot of problems with Rhaenys Targaryen not incinerating the Greens comes from the weird gender politics the show has embraced. One of the interesting thing about GOT was it wasn't afraid to make the female characters as crazy and murderous as the men. 1/” In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersSean T at RCP is a free elf. @SeanTrende. This is sort of how I felt seeing some of the shifts in Appalachia in 2010, or blue collar areas in 2016. Except this I genuinely didn't think I'd see for another 20 years or so. Just astonishing. 12:40 AM · Jun 15, 2022. 236. 96. 1,051. 81. Bookmarks.“One final thought on the Clinton-Comey thing. It's fashionable to refer to "just needing to flip 40,000 votes across three states"”

Sean T at RCP is a free elf @SeanTrende. I've been sitting on this since this AM, but since proper notifications are out: I'm sad to report that Prof. Bear Braumoeller passed away this AM. ... He didn't have to do that, and I'm forever grateful to him. He leaves behind a wife and 7-year-old daughter. 2/ 1. 25. Sean T at RCP is a free elf

“@varadmehta Probably more of the latter. The D is a touch behind Biden's vote share. The independent that got ~3% is a former GOP statewide officeholder turned libertarian turned independent.”Where there isn't a central constitutional argument, it isn't surprising that these justices might look askance at modifying Gingles. 2/ May 16 • 10 tweets • 3 min read

Sean T at RCP is a free elf. @SeanTrende. This is sort of how I felt seeing some of the shifts in Appalachia in 2010, or blue collar areas in 2016. Except this I genuinely didn't think I'd see for another 20 years or so. Just astonishing. 12:40 AM · Jun 15, 2022. 236. 96. 1,051. 81. Bookmarks.“My take: You can make a case for Phantom Menace largely because, as Machete Order proves, you can pretty much watch the entire series without it and not miss anything. But it isn't a horrible movie, though I'm the weirdo who sort of liked the Palpatine political machinations.”08 Sep 2022 18:37:23“Gen X is gonna get skipped over for presidents until we're 80 years old like the Silents. No respect.”“@RadioFreeTom @ThePlumLineGS I'm saying a restoration might have been possible by taking the "grudging acceptance" route. I think it's probably a nonstarter having taken the civil war route. Which I think is probably a righteous tack, but let's be real about the consequences. 4/4”

From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll. Practice here first or read more on our help page! More from @SeanTrende. Sean T at RCP ...

“But Kaine and Warner are pretty young, so his political career is already done. His private sector prospects are . . . limited right now. This probably isn't an impeachable offense. 100% apart from doing the right thing, why do we think he leaves? 2/2”

“Gen X is gonna get skipped over for presidents until we're 80 years old like the Silents. No respect.”Jul 5, 2018 · “Put differently, if you had placed Kennedy on the 1968 Warren Court, he would have appeared to be a freakishly right-of-center justice. For that matter, Souter probably would have voted with Harlan, who held down the right flank of that Court. 6/” Jun 1, 2022 · “Any of the remaining three presents a strong case, to my mind. I don't think it's AotC though. OK, fine, "I don't like sand" is arguably the worst or second worst line in all Star Wars history. But if you pull the Padme/Anakin romance and ninja Yoda stuff, it isn't terrible. 2/” VA-10 was carried by McAuliffe by like 3 points, so if that flips it is beyond something we've seen in our lifetime and Rs are going to have 250+ seats.On the fringes, Johnson seems to have weathered the storm in WI, and is probably headed for a third term, although a systemic poll error against Rs could create a ...Jun 5, 2021 · In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users Jul 8, 2022 · “As I've said before, I think the alternatives offered up by the Tea Party purifiers and populists have largely been appalling. But if you look back over the past 40 years, its not hard to understand how this happened. 17/17”

In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users“@Nate_Cohn Yeah, part of the problem is the modern right's disdain for academia/anti-Intellectual-ism, combined with the fact that the CRT stuff has a fair amount of overlap with traditional racial liberalism stuff. So it's easy to lump them together.”“@kkondik Yeah, the shift in the non-urban, non -Deep South over the past 20 years is probably the most consequential — and least well understood — shifts of our lifetime.”01 Nov 2022 23:09:39Sean T at RCP is a free elf on Twitter ... Log inThe silver lining for Ds is this: Ciattarelli came close to Christie's 2013 showing in Passaic, (when Christie won by 22 statewide), but likely loses.

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In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users“@SethAMandel @varadmehta The basic observation about Biden being boring and that making him a tough opponent is basically correct, but it is also why the attempts to shoehorn his first 100 days into a transformative, FDR-like presidency is sorta silly right now.”“On the uncontested House races, it is obviously proper to try to estimate vote totals for those seats. It's weird that people are suddenly super keyed in on this known-for-decades-but-always-ignore-issue, but whatevs. There are 10R uncontested and 2D. BUT . …Things will change, and the voters will get another say in two years. Sean Trende is senior elections analyst for RealClearPolitics. He is a co-author of the 2014 Almanac of American Politics and ...Jun 1, 2022 · “OK, let's settle this: Worst Star Wars main storyline movie. I'll give my take at the end, but I do think a case can be made for any of these.” “Especially if you wind up with Bernie taking his (hypothetical) 15% everywhere. Personally I think three is the real danger number, but four with Bernie, Warren, Biden, and Harris doing a demographic division of …“Especially if you wind up with Bernie taking his (hypothetical) 15% everywhere. Personally I think three is the real danger number, but four with Bernie, Warren, Biden, and Harris doing a demographic division of …

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“We're reaching the end of the second quarter, which is when election outcomes are more-or-less baked in. At this point, you really have to have Republicans as overwhelming favorites to take the House with solid margins, and strong favorites to take the Senate.”

“Ds missing the runoff in Texas isn't that terrible--it's often a quirk of these jungle primaries--but Ds getting outrun 62%-37% in total voteshare among the candidates in a Trump + 4 district is substantially worse than I'd expected. One election though.”Log in. Sign upAt 266 electoral votes, Donald Trump stood just one state short of winning the presidency. And with the final RCP Poll Averages in a handful of battleground states showing Trump trailing by just 0 ...Jul 5, 2022 · “Here in the real world Silver gives Demings a 1-in-17 chance of beating Rubio, but sure, why not?” Replying to @apearlma@SeanTrende. My understanding has been that the public health officials want people to mask because they're worried about this sort of transmission. My basic sense is that this is headed toward vaccinated people not needing to mask. But we need to know definitively about whether they can.“@geoffreyvs Or at least, either Al Gore lost or Donald Trump lost, depending what the model claims to predict. Can't have picked them both correctly.”Sean T at RCP. Follow @SeanTrende. Nov 8 • 8 tweets • 2 min read Bookmark . Save as PDF . My Authors My basic view of this election hasn’t changed over the cycle; it’s the same frame I carry into every election: they are referenda on the party in power, not choices. 1/“I mean, Cameron County 50-50 with half the vote counted? Obama beat Romney here by 30 points. He won Willacy County by 40 (which is also tied right now). I mean later votes will probably shift things but the fact that this is even close in a congressional race . . .”

Just astonishing. https://t.co/O0qszz9IqG" / Twitter. Sean T at RCP is a free elf. @SeanTrende. This is sort of how I felt seeing some of the shifts in Appalachia in 2010, or blue collar areas in 2016.Mar 1, 2016 · Sean T at RCP Verified account @SeanTrende. Sr. Elections Analyst, RCP. @osupolisci. @aei. Recovering Att'y. Married to @emytrende, dad to 3. You shall love your crooked neighbor, with your crooked heart. In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users9 Kas 2022 ... Live updating with the latest developments from the 2022 midterm elections, including the results in Arizona and Nevada, as Democrats ...Instagram:https://instagram. ku women nitprincilteaching students with high incidence disabilitiescherry brandon “Mason has been singing the same song over and over again for the past 20m in his little 8 y/o boy voice and one nice thing about having three is that I recognize that voice (and maybe the singing) will be gone in the blink of an eye. So when he stops, I ask him to sing it again.” ricky council wichita statemicromedexx In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersIn this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users committee finance 13 Şub 2013 ... ... T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act to clarify that houses of worship are eligible for certain disaster relief and ...So we were probably already headed for a significant shift in seats, compounded by this. Add in that there's probably going to be a substantial movement of populations *within* states, and things are going to get bad, real quick. 2/Log in. Sign up